By Nchetachi Chukwuajah
A report by SB Morgan (SBM) Intelligence, an influential geopolitical research firm, says though Nigeria saw a marginal drop in food prices in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, insecurity and poor logistics continue to strain households.
In its latest report, entitled, ‘Jollof Index Q3 2025: A Tale of Two Economics,’ SBM noted that these dual challenges continue to drive Nigeria’s food inflation, which declined to 16.87 per cent in September from 21.87 per cent in August, eroding the impact of the decline in food prices.
It stated that the national average Jollof index fell by 3.17 per cent from N27,528 in June to N26,656 in September 2025, adding that the moderation was, however, “non-linear and fragile,” driven mainly by seasonal harvests rather than structural improvements.
“Nigeria’s food affordability crisis remains acute. The easing of inflation is largely statistical, not practical,” the report said.
According to SBM, the decline in food prices could partially be credited to government interventions, such as import waivers for key food items, which improved market supply, and a more stable naira, which helped curb the cost of imported inputs.
“However, the temporal pattern of price relief indicates a deep structural challenge.
“The non-linear decline, with meaningful relief materialising only in September, suggests that the price moderation is overwhelmingly tied to the timing of seasonal supply arrival and early harvest yields, rather than systematic improvements in logistics or security.”
The report further highlighted the impact of security failures and logistics bottlenecks on food inflation, as transporters routinely pay between N5,000 and N50,000 in informal fees or for armed escorts.
It said these hidden costs add up to 20-30 per cent on the final prices of goods, resulting in “unofficial tax on commerce.”
SBM urged the government to address these hidden costs, warning that failure to do so would result in Nigeria’s food inflation remaining resistant to conventional policy measures.
Some of the recommendations made by the research firm include for the government to prioritise the restoration of security in agricultural zones, viewing it as foundational economic infrastructure.
It said: “Declare a state of emergency on key federal roads to reduce logistics costs and dismantle the architecture of extortion (the unofficial checkpoints and illegal escort systems).”
The report’s breakdown of the impact of food inflation on Nigerian households by states showed that prices rose by 6.83 per cent in Kano State due to insecurity and the diversion of local produce.
It stated that “Port Harcourt recorded a 1.84 per cent increase, driven by poor roads and high internal distribution costs. Bauchi, on the other hand, witnessed a sharp 15 per cent decline due to local harvests.
“Conversely the South-East and South-South faced persistently high and sticky costs, driven by internal logistics, high demand, and operational expenses.”
With the festive season approaching and its attendant rise in demands for goods and services, SBM warned that the modest relief recorded in Q3 could see a reversal unless the government acts quickly to secure food-producing areas and reduce transit costs.
It further advised policymakers to look beyond year-on-year inflation figures and focus on extreme month-on-month volatility and persistently high absolute prices.
