By Nchetachi Chukwuajah
The Federal Government has projected a total revenue of N34.33 trillion, an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day and a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel in 2026.
The government also made an exchange rate assumption of N1,512/$ and targets a 1.8 million barrels per day oil production benchmark for actual budget planning in 2026.
These were contained in the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), which have been forwarded to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu for approval.
The document, a foundational step in the 2026 budget process, was contained in a letter from the president and read by Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu during plenary on Wednesday, December 10.
In the letter, entitled:‘Submission of the Federal Government of Nigeria’s 2026-2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper,’ President Tinubu said the MTEF and FSP were approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) on December 3.
The president urged lawmakers to expedite legislative action on the document as the 2026 budget will be prepared on the basis.
Kalu, after reading the letter, referred the document to the House Committee on Finance for detailed scrutiny and possible legislative approval.
At the FEC meeting on Wednesday, the economic management team led by the Budget Office of the Federation, in collaboration with the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, presented the draft MTEF/FSP.
The council approved the framework that will guide Nigeria’s fiscal and budget direction for the three years between 2026 and 2028, and contained key macro-economic and fiscal assumptions adopted by the economic team for the period.
According to the framework, the Federal Government aims to achieve an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, with a more conservative 1.8 million barrels benchmark for actual budget planning and a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
The government also made an exchange rate assumption of N1,512/$ for the 2026 budget and project total revenue of N34.33 trillion in 2026 under this framework.
The FEC, while approving the MTEF/FSP, also endorsed a Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling, a cap on how much the government can spend, meant to enforce fiscal discipline.
The council also approved a $100 million facility from the African Development Bank (AfDB) for the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund, aimed at supporting entrepreneurs aged 18–35 across micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). It additionally approved a development loan from the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) for an integrated agricultural project in Yobe State.
