By Nchetachi Chukwuajah
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.15 percent in December 2025 following a methodological review.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the NBS on its website on Thursday, January 15, the CPI rose to 131.2 points in December 2025 from 130.5 points in November.
The report noted that on a year-on-year basis, inflation declined from 17.33 per cent in November 2025 and was 19.65 per cent lower than the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024, though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.
The report read, “The Consumer Price Index rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up by 0.7 points from the previous month (130.5). The December 2025 year-on-year Headline inflation rate stood at 15.15 per cent relative to the November 2025 headline inflation rate (17.33 per cent).
“On a year-on-year basis, the December Headline inflation rate was 19.65% lower than the rate recorded in December 2024 (34.80 per cent). This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in December 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.”
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation declined from 1.22 percent in November to 0.54 per cent in December 2025.
According to the bureau, this showed that “the rate of increase in the average price level was lower in December 2025 than in November 2025.”
It would be recalled that earlier in December 2025, the NBS had reported that the headline inflation rate was 14.45 per cent year-on-year for November, compared with 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025.
Following the methodology review, the NBS now puts the November inflation rate at 17.33 per cent, higher than the previously reported figure.
The NBS explained that the December inflation figures were influenced by a change in methodology following the CPI rebasing.
It noted that the year-on-year headline inflation rate and other sub-indices were computed using a 12-month index reference period, with the average CPI for 2024 set to 100, rather than a single-month reference period.
The NBS noted that using a single-month base would have produced “an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate,” driven by base effects rather than underlying price movements.
It added that the adjustment aligns with international best practice as outlined in the IMF Consumer Price Index Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual.
Despite the moderation in monthly inflation, the 12-month average inflation rate remained elevated, as the percentage change in the average CPI for the 12 months ending December 2025 over the previous 12-month period stood at 23.01 per cent.
A breakdown of the headline figure showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to inflation, accounting for 6.06 percentage points of the year-on-year rate.
Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.96 percentage points, transport accounted for 1.62 percentage points, while housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels contributed 1.28 percentage points.
Education services, health, clothing and footwear, information and communication, and other divisions also added to overall inflation, though at lower levels.
Food inflation recorded a steep movement, dropping to 10.84 per cent year-on-year in December 2025 from 39.84 percent in December 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 0.36 per cent, reversing the 1.13 percent increase recorded in November.
The NBS attributed the decline to falling average prices of items such as tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper, and fresh onions. The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending December 2025 stood at 22 per cent.
A state-by-state analysis showed that Abia recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 19.03 per cent, followed by Ogun at 18.80 per cent, and Katsina at 18.66 per cent.
Conversely, Sokoto recorded the slowest rise at 8.61 per cent, followed by Plateau at 9.05 per cent, and Kaduna at 10.38 per cent.
Month-on-month, Cross River recorded the highest increase in all items inflation at 3.11 per cent, followed by Abia at 2.63 per cent, and Delta at 2.53 per cent.
On the other hand, Ondo recorded the sharpest decline at -3.74 per cent, while Gombe and Jigawa also posted notable month-on-month decreases.
