By Nchetachi Chukwuajah
The Federal Government says the economy is projected to grow by 4.68 percent in 2026 as the government drives investment-led, inclusive growth aimed at creating jobs and boosting citizens’ welfare.
Also, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) foresees a 5.5 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a 16 per cent inflation rate, and an exchange rate of N1,480 to a dollar in 2026.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, gave the Federal Government’s position on Thursday, January 16, in Lagos while delivering the keynote address at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2026.
The minister noted that the growth projection is consistent with Nigeria’s medium-term goal of achieving seven percent annual growth and building a one-trillion-dollar economy by 2030.
He also projected average inflation at 16.5 percent and the exchange rate at about N1,400 per dollar.
“For inflation, as we have said, we need to get into simple figures. It is expected to average 16.5 per cent and the exchange rate, N1,400 per dollar,” he said.
According to Edun, the 2026 budget, entitled ‘Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,’ reflects President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to ensuring that macroeconomic improvements translate into real gains in Nigerians’ daily lives.
He said, “It is not about the metrics or the percentages; it is about the lived experience of Nigerians in terms of electricity supply, food availability, and improved welfare.”
The minister added that the budget deficit, estimated at four percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reflected the scale of Nigeria’s development needs and the ambition to accelerate growth.
Edun emphasised that following the removal of distortions and recent stabilisation measures, the focus of economic policy had shifted to driving growth through increased investment.
The minister said the reform programme was anchored on four objectives, which include “consolidating macroeconomic stability, improving the business and investment climate, strengthening human capital while protecting the vulnerable through social protection, and stimulating broad-based economic growth.”
On fiscal performance, Edun said that even with shortfalls in oil and gas revenues compared to budgeted levels, the Federal Government prioritised fiscal federalism, transparency, and accountability in managing the federation account.
Also, at the event, NESG’s Chief Economist and Director of Research and Development, Olusegun Omisakin, stated that the group foresees a 5.5 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a 16 per cent inflation rate, and an exchange rate of N1,480 per dollar in 2026.
The NESG report, entitled ‘Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria,’ also stated that the external reserves are expected to rise to $52 billion.
The group’s projection comes on the heels of a recent forecast by the World Bank, which increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent forecasted in June 2025.
The World Bank also upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2027 to 4.4 per cent from 3.8 percent.
The NESG noted that Nigeria is currently in a consolidation phase, having recorded notable improvements in GDP, inflation control, and foreign reserves management, but warned that significant challenges remain.
Omisakin highlighted four pillars critical to sustaining Nigeria’s economic gains, which include macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, institutional strength, and social protection.
On macroeconomic stability, Omisakin emphasised the need for single-digit inflation in the long term, foreign reserves above $50 billion, and maintenance of positive real interest rates.
The economist also said structural transformation requires attention to agriculture, manufacturing, power, and export diversification.
On institutional strength, Omisakin noted the need for improved implementation of new tax laws, fiscal discipline, and transparency in public spending.
He added that social protection and job creation must shift from merely insulating citizens from economic shocks to actively integrating them into productive activities.
Also speaking, Chairman of NESG, Niyi Yusuf, said Nigeria has emerged from one of the most challenging adjustment periods in its recent economic history.
Yusuf said 2024-2025 marked a stabilisation phase characterised by major structural reforms in foreign exchange management, energy pricing, and monetary policy.
