Naira will strengthen, inflation will drop to 14%, GDP will increase by 4% in 2026, manufacturers predict
By Nchetachi Chukwuajah
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected further strengthening of the naira, sustained inflation decline, improved access to credit, and a four per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026.
MAN projected that the naira would further appreciate to between N1,300 and N1,400 against the dollars, inflation would decline to 14 per cent, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would further sustain benchmark interest rate cuts to 23 per cent.
It said its prediction is predicated on favourable oil prices, rising foreign investments, stable energy costs, and the effective implementation of key industrial and fiscal policies.
The Director, Research and Economic Policy Division, MAN, Dr Oluwasegun Osidipe, stated this at a news conference on the 2025 MAN Think Tank Session held in Lagos on Tuesday, October 28.
Osidipe further noted that the projections, if actualised, would lead to higher manufacturing output and strengthen investments.
He said: “For manufacturers, the naira is projected to appreciate further to N1,300–N1,400 against the dollars, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, increased foreign investments, and remittance inflows.
“Headline inflation will decelerate further to 14 per cent, supported by easing food prices, stable energy prices, and appreciation of the naira.
“The Central Bank of Nigeria is anticipated to implement further cuts in the benchmark interest rate to about 23 per cent, in line with disinflationary trend, and to stimulate credit expansion and output growth.
“Further reduction in lending rates and completion of the bank recapitalisation exercise will enhance credit availability to manufacturers, strengthening investment and capacity utilisation.”
On manufacturing output, Osidipe said real growth was projected to reach 3.1 per cent while contribution to real GDP was expected to rise to 10.2 per cent.
He said the expected gains will be on the effective execution of new tax laws’ incentives, operationalisation of the National Single Window Project, and purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the “Nigeria First” policy framework.
Overall GDP growth, Osidipe said, was expected to reach four per cent in 2026 due to higher oil output and further improvement in fiscal space.
He added that the GDP growth would also result from expansion in financial and manufacturing sectors, and heightened consumption during the election campaigns in the fourth quarter (Q4), would also spur GDP growth.
